20 BJP MPs may face heat in 2019 election as their party lost majority of assembly seats under the parliamentary constituencies they represent

20 BJP MPs may face heat in 2019 election as their party lost majority of assembly seats under the parliamentary constituencies they represent

Courtesy : Agencies18/12/2018 08:01

Assembly elections may not dictate the course of the upcoming Lok Sabha polls, but if the recent results are any indication several BJP MPs may face the heat in the run-up to the 2019 general election as their party lost majority of assembly seats under the parliamentary constituencies they represent.

 In Chhattisgarh, the situation is much tougher for all 10 BJP MPs since the Congress swept the state polls this time, reducing the BJP to 15 in the 90-member assembly.

 But from Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan – where the BJP had won 52 of the 54 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 – Agency has shortlisted 20 parliamentarians who face an uphill task to maintain their party’s lead in the 2019 general election as the BJP lost at least five assembly seats in their respective Lok Sabha constituencies.

COL SONARAM JAT LS SEAT- Barmer (Rajasthan)

Assembly Seats: 8 Won by BJP- 1 Won by Cong-7 Pressure Point: The region has strong influence of veteran BJP leader Jaswant Singh, who was denied ticket in 2014 and contested as an independent.

 His son and former Barmer MP, Manvendra Singh, is now in the Congress. The Rajput anger over the BJP and sympathy with Jaswant Singh’s family over the treatment meted out to him by the BJP is something the BJP needs to avert in the coming months.

 BAHADUR SINGH KOLI LS SEAT- Bharatpur (Rajasthan)

Assembly Seats: 8 Won by BJP-0 Won by Cong-5 Pressure Point: There is strong anti-incumbency against existing MP Bahadur Singh Koli, along with severe infighting in the BJP, in Bharatpur.

Just after assembly tickets were announced for assembly constituencies in Bharatpur, Koli said that all the party candidates would lose since he had not been consulted over ticket distribution.

The BJP might field a new candidate in Koli’s place. Bharatpur is an agrarian region near the UP border of Mathura and agrarian crisis and unemployment are the biggest issues.

RAHUL KASWAN LS Seats –Churu (Rajasthan)

Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress-5 Pressure Point: Four-time BJP MP from Churu, Ram Singh Kaswan, had vacated his seat for his son Rahul Kaswan in 2014.

 This time, Ram Singh Kaswan was contesting the assembly election from Sadulpur seat and lost. He came third after the Congress and the BSP.

Former Commonwealth gold medallist, discus thrower Krishna Poonia, fielded by the Congress won the seat. The BJP had won six assembly seats last time but this time it could win only two seats. Farmers’ unrest is quite visible in the region, which has been leading the protests. The Left parties, especially the CPI (M), has worked hard in this area to raise awareness among poor people.

 RAJYAVARDHAN RATHORE LS SEAT – Jaipur

Rural (Rajasthan) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress-5 Pressure Point : This seat came into existence in 2009 after delimitation.

In 2009, Lal Chand Kataria of the Congress won it. In 2014, the BJP fielded Olympics medallist Rathore and he won by more than three lakh votes. But rural distress is taking the sheen off the BJP and Rathore, a Union minister, will have to work hard to retain the seat. Farmers are unhappy in the entire Shekhawati and adjoining region. Besides, the anger among specific caste groups such as Rajputs, Jats and Scheduled Castes (SCs) is something the BJP needs to resolve.

SANTOSH AHLAWAT LS SEAT – Jhunjhunu (Rajasthan)

Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress-5 Pressure Point: It is a Congress bastion where veteran Congress leader Sis Ram Ola won five consecutive elections before losing to the BJP’s first-time contestant Santosh Ahlawat in 2014. Ahlawat won by 2.3 lakh votes in the Modi wave which swept the state. Ahlawat was an MLA from Surajgarh before becoming an MP in 2014. This time the BJP has managed to win Surajgarh by a little over 3,000 votes. The BJP is facing the ire of both Jats and SCs who dominate the constituency. Jats are angry that the party has not promoted any Jat leader from the region. BSP has also gained considerable ground in the region, hampering the BJP’s chances and also making inroads into the Congress vote bank.

GAJENDRA SINGH SHEKHAWAT LS SEAT – Jodhpur (Rajasthan) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress-6 Pressure Point: The seat is currently held by senior BJP leader and Union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, who is popularly known as Gajju Bana in his constituency. Shekhawat became MP for the first time by winning this seat with the highest margin of over four lakh votes in 2014. Shekhawat has worked hard to improve air services in Jodhpur and has an image of being accessible to everyone. In 2013, the BJP had won seven out of eight seats in the region. However, despite Shekhawat being promoted as a state leader the party was reduced to two seats. It’s the home district of new Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot and he is likely to do his best to maintain the Congress party’s lead in the region. The anger among Rajput and Muslim voters in some pockets could also add to the challenge for the BJP.

MANOJRAJORIA LS SEAT – Karauli-Dholpur (Rajasthan)

 Assembly Seasts-8 Won by the BJP-1 Won by Congress-6 Pressure Point: It’s a Congress stronghold. In 2013, when the BJP swept Rajasthan, the Congress won six out of eight assembly constituencies here. Even Rajoria’s winning margin was a little over 25,000 in 2014, at a time when most of the MPs won by more than a lakh votes in Rajasthan.

Being a reserved seat for SCs, Karauli-Dholpur saw the BJP facing the anger of SC community in the assembly polls. To make matters worse for the BJP, there is infighting in the party’s unit here.

 C R CHAUDHARY LS SEAT – Nagaur (Rajasthan) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress-5 Pressure Point: The BJP won this seat twice before 2014. Nagaur has always seen a tough fight between the BJP and the Congress. Since this is a Jat dominated region, both the parties field Jat candidates. In early days Congress veteran Nathuram Mirdha used to win the seat. In 2009, his granddaughter Jyoti Mirdha won on a Congress ticket. CR Chaudhary won in 2014 for the first time and is currently a Union minister. The entry of Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) has expanded choice for the voters.

SUMEDHANAND SARASWATI LS SEAT – Sikar (Rajasthan) Assembly Seats-8 Won by BJP-1 Won by Congress-6 Pressure Point: Saraswati contested Sikar for the first time and won this seat. Sikar is a farmer dominated Jat seat close to Jaipur and farmers’ issues dominate the election narrative. The BJP did well in 2013 by winning six seats. But this time it was restricted to only one seat. The anger against the current MPs doubled by agrarian crisis has put the pressure on the BJP. Besides, Subhash Maharia, threetime MP from Sikar and a minister in Vajpayee government joined the Congress in November 2016 leaving the BJP. The Maharia effect was clearly visible in the assembly election.

SUKHBIR SINGH JAUNAPURIA LS SEAT – Tonk-Sawai Madhopur (Rajasthan)

Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-1 Won by Congress- 6 Pressure Point: In 2013, the BJP had won all the eight assembly seats of the Lok Sabha constituency. This time the party was reduced to one seat. The biggest factor working against the party is that Sachin Pilot is now an MLA from Tonk and being a deputy chief minister he would focus on the region. Pilot also mobilised voters in almost all nearby constituencies.

ANOOP MISHRA LS SEAT – Morena (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-1 Won by Congress- 7 Pressure Point: Morena is a BJP stronghold and the party has been winning this seat since 1996. In 2013, the BJP won five out of eight seats and it maintained a lead from six assembly constituencies in 2014. This time it has been reduced to one seat, with the Congress winning seven. Mishra himself contested the assembly election from Bhitarwar seat in Gwalior and lost to the Congress. The BSP’s influence has meanwhile increased in the region and on two seats it was the runner-up behind the Congress, pushing the BJP to the third position. All that might add up to trouble for the BJP.

 BHAGIRATH PRASAD LS SEAT – Bhind (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-1 Won by Congress- 6 Pressure Point: In 2014, the Congress announced Prasad as a party candidate. But at the last moment, Prasad joined the BJP and won this seat that the party had been winning since 1989. Prasad was eyeing an assembly ticket this time. During the agitation over SC/ST Act, Bhind was one of the most affected regions in Madhya Pradesh where four people had died in April this year. The anger among the SC community helped the Congress increase its tally from two in 2013 to six in 2018.

NARENDRA SINGH TOMAR LS SEAT – Gwalior (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress- 6 Pressure Point: Though the BJP had been winning Gwalior in the past three elections, the seat has always been tough considering it is the home turf of Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia. Even in 2014, both the BJP and Congress maintained a lead in four assembly seats each and Tomar managed to win by around 25,000 votes. There is a sizeable SC population and their anger was visible during the protest in April this year. On the Gwalior assembly seat, Jaibhan Singh Pawaiya, a senior state leader and minister in Shivraj Singh Chouhan government lost the assembly election.

FAGGAN SINGH KULASTE LS SEAT – Mandla (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress- 6 Pressure Point: There is strong anti-incumbency against the BJP and the current MP Faggan Singh Kulaste, who has been a strong tribal face of the BJP and was a Union minister. His brother and two-time MLA Ram Pyare Kulaste lost from Niwas assembly seat of Mandla. There is strong infighting in the BJP and the popularity of Kulaste brothers is on the decline.

RODMAL NAGAR LS SEAT – Rajgarh (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress- 5 Pressure Point: This is the family seat of senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh. From 1991 to 2004, it was either Singh or his brother Laxman Singh who was the MP from here. In 2014, the BJP won this seat but the road ahead for Nagar looks difficult. Laxman Singh is back in the Congress and has just won the Chachoura assembly seat. Digvijaya’s son Jaivardhan Singh has won the Raghogarh seat for the second time. The entire family would work hard to neutralise the BJP and secure a victory for the Congress, especially since there is a Congress government in the state.

CHINTAMANI MALVIYA LS SEAT – Ujjain (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-3 Won by Congress- 5 Pressure Point - There is a strong anti-incumbency against the BJP and that resulted in the BJP losing five seats to the Congress. Premchand Guddu, former MP of the Congress, joined the BJP just before the election, but that also couldn’t help the BJP in the region. Ujjain is a BJP bastion but the party needs to focus on Ujjain before 2019. Malviya himself was willing to fight the assembly election this time.

SAVITRI THAKUR

LS SEAT – Dhar (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-2 Won by Congress- 6 Pressure Point- Dhar has been giving both the Congress and the BJP a chance in the past. In 2013 assembly election, the BJP won six out of eight assembly segments. The situation has reversed this time, with the Congress gaining a foothold in the tribal belt. The Congress benefited with the inclusion of young tribal leader Hiralal Alawa, who himself has won from Manawar assembly seat. Alawa commands support of tribal youth of the region and this could help the Congress take an edge over the BJP.

 SUBHASH PATEL LS SEAT- Khargone (Madhya Pradesh) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-1 Won by Congress- 6 Pressure Point - The Congress has made a comeback in the tribal belt, winning six of the eight constituencies. Local BJP leaders are unhappy with Patel. Khargone has given equal chances to the BJP and the Congress in the past, and going by the assembly results, the tribal consolidation against the BJP is visible. Unemployment is one of the major issues in the region.

JYOTI DHURVE LS SEAT – Betul (MP) Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-3 Won by Congress- 5 Pressure Point: Unemployment is a major issue in Betul and that helped the Congress gain considerable ground among the tribal population. Also, the BJP MP Jyoti Dhurve was mired in controversy over her caste certificate. There is a possibility that her party may replace her with a new candidate. Betul is a BJP stronghold and the party has been winning the seat since 1996 in the Lok Sabha.

NANDKUMAR CHAUHAN LS SEAT – Khandwa Assembly Seats-8 Won by the BJP-3 Won by Congress- 4 Pressure Point - Chauhan is a former state BJP president who was replaced just before the assembly election. The BJP had won seven assembly seats out of eight in 2013 and led in all the assembly segments during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It is said that both the Narmada river and the BJP are established here. Congress leader Arun Yadav is also working hard to convince voters in favour of the Congress before 2019. He was MP from here in 2009.

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